The doubt is the only certainty in the UK market complexes

By Daniel Thomas

Published: March 3, 2008 02:00 | Last update: March 3, 2008 02.00

The property investment in the UK market was simply too long ago, it was difficult not to make a profit.

But with the correct values, which has seen the luxury and only the brave predict what might happen then.

The change is illustrated by a study conducted by King Sturge, the property consultant, for European investors and bankers sense, which says that the UK offers the best and the worst of opportunity.

The survey of investors and bankers, funds control of € 395 million (£ 302bn) met on the British market in the first three in Europe, and the last three. Someone is right and someone is wrong.

About 90 percent of investors and 70 percent of bankers think the collapse of the capital value will be completed by early 2009. The other 30 percent of bankers say it might persist until 2010.

The uncertainty is evident in the wide range of opinions on the part of investors, some say that the market has now bottomed out, while others said that the decline will continue until 18 months.

Differences of opinion are often found in the same sectors, with one fund manager saying the City office market has reached its climax, but other commentators say the losses could continue, especially if the occupants also suffer losses .

Similar differences are expressed throughout the United Kingdom, on behalf of detail in some quarters and not in others. Some stress the benefits of specialized niche markets, others say the large gap between replacement value and sub-sectors is restored.

Angus McIntosh, director of research at King Sturge, said: "uncertainty in the marketplace has fractured industry opinion about what 2008 will hold. In the United Kingdom, some see an important opportunity to buy, while d others continue to be downbeat. "

The problem was exacerbated by the sharp reduction in the level of transactions in the market, so it is difficult to assess where the true value.

The disparity between what buyers and sellers think buildings should cost is still cause problems, or with loans to blink. With a shortage of transactional data, the two can justify their positions.

Throw in more uncertainty on the status of the professional sector, and the market fell into an unprecedented period of navel gazing.

Andy Rofe, general manager of Invesco Real Estate, which has several new funds in the pipeline, it is said vigilant regarding many areas, and even with little buying expectations that prices have further to fall. Even with the money institutional Germany and the United States seeks to the United Kingdom, investors are "wary of catching a falling knife."

Experts say the next step depends on the debt markets, and Harvey Soning, the veteran property consultant, expects banks to open the market for better or for worse.

If ease their problems, banks are beginning to new loans cautiously. But if they get worse, the banks will call in loans, forcing the properties on the market in number last seen in 1990. In this case, banks will be the major property owners British.

But many rich equity investors is likely to support the market, with many species are promised by the German institutions - already selective buying in London - US real estate funds, funds UK occasion, the sovereign and wealth funds Pending private investors anticipated correction in prices.

With visibility low, only the brave - that is the opportunist - do more than remain on the ground. It seems that the market is set to remain quiet during much of this year